The Israel Gazette poll tracker averages every major Israeli election poll since 15 September 2026, counting each pollster once and splitting results by the outlet that ran them. Likud and Yashar lead at roughly 22 seats each. Israeli polls miss often, so use them for direction.
Every major poll we could capture, averaged by pollster and split by the outlet that ran it. Election day is 27 October 2026.
Read this firstIsraeli polls miss, and they miss by a lot. Samples are small, some voters are hard to reach, and a party at 3% is either four seats or zero. This month the pollsters disagree with each other by more than any margin of error. Use this page for direction and bloc size, not for exact seats. Read why Israeli polls are so hard to trust.
The blocs, three ways
Average seats from polls since 15 September. Each pollster counts once, so a firm that publishes often does not dominate. Each side needs 61 of 120. The left dashed line is where the Netanyahu bloc reaches 61 counting from the left. The right dashed line is where the opposition reaches 61 counting from the right. Neither bar touches its line without help from the middle.
Netanyahu bloc (Likud, Otzma, Shas, UTJ, RZ-Zehut, Amcha)Zionist opposition (Yashar, Together, Democrats, Yisrael Beytenu)Joint ListRa'am (Mansour Abbas, may back a bloc)Unaligned (Reservists, Blue and White)
Outlets with a sourced pro-Netanyahu alignment: Channel 14 and Israel Hayom. We found no solid source placing any other outlet in a camp, so we do not. Haaretz and Ynet are often called left-leaning, but we captured no usable recent polls from them. The gap between groups is a fact. Why it exists, we cannot tell from this data.
Party averages and the spread between pollsters
Dot is the average of pollster averages. The line runs from the lowest to the highest pollster average.
Netanyahu bloc seats, pollster by pollster
One dot per poll since 15 September. Same bloc, very different answers.
Both blocs over time
Netanyahu blocZionist oppositionDots mix pollsters, so a jump can be a different firm, not a real shift. Polls before 15 Sept are lower quality and shown faded.
Threshold watch
The threshold is 3.25%, about four seats. These parties sit on the line. Seats go from zero to four in one step.
All polls
Greyed rows are excluded: before 15 September, lower-tier source, or seats that do not add to 120.
Method and data notes
Average. Polls from 15 September onward, from the main sources, whose seats add to exactly 120. We take each pollster's average, then average the pollsters. Every firm gets equal weight.
Blocs. We recompute bloc totals ourselves, because outlets define them differently. Netanyahu bloc: Likud, Otzma Yehudit, Shas, UTJ, RZ-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael. Zionist opposition: Yashar, Together, Democrats, Yisrael Beytenu. Arab parties: Joint List and Ra'am, shown separately and outside both sides by default. A toggle lets you count Ra'am with either side, or both Arab lists with the opposition. Unaligned: Reservists and Blue and White. Placing Amcha, Yisrael Beytenu and Blue and White is a judgment call. Move them and the totals move.
Pollster to outlet. Channel 12: Midgam (R&C). Channel 13: Midgam (Project). Kan and Israel Hayom: Kantar. Maariv and Walla: Lazar. i24: Direct Polls. Channel 14: Filber (Next Data). Zman Yisrael: Tatika.
Excluded. A 3 September Tatika poll (seats add to 116) and a 2 September Direct Polls poll (122). Parties not reported by a pollster are left out of that party's average, not counted as zero.
Gaps. Nothing captured for 6 to 8 October. Channel 14 and Zman Yisrael show nothing after 17 September, Kan nothing after 27 September. Two Haaretz polls (6 and 7 October) exist but could not be read. Noam, Haredi Public and Israel First were not reported in any poll.
Compared with our other articles. The Election Math article averaged nine polls from 24 September to 7 October. This page uses a wider window, so numbers differ slightly.
Poll data compiled from published poll tables and news reports. Check a source before you quote a single number.
Quick answers
How does the Israel Gazette poll tracker work out its average?
It uses polls published since 15 September 2026 whose seat counts add up to 120. Each pollster counts once, so a firm that polls often does not outweigh the rest. The tracker averages within each pollster first, then averages the pollsters. Results from Channel 14 and Israel Hayom are shown as a separate group.
Why are Israeli election polls often wrong?
Samples are small, turnout is hard to model, and many voters decide late. Parties near the 3.25% threshold swing the result: a list that falls just short wastes its votes and moves seats to others. Treat any poll as direction, not a forecast.
Does either bloc reach 61 seats in the polls?
In the tracker average, neither the Netanyahu bloc nor the Zionist opposition reaches 61 on its own. The Arab parties and the lists near the threshold decide whether either side gets there.