Gantz Is Out: What It Means

What happened

On Monday 19 October 2026, eight days before the 27 October vote, Blue and White leader Benny Gantz said he will not run in the election. His statement said he will "keep fighting for unity," which he called the only way to prevent another disaster. His party says he is not leaving politics. For now he is not endorsing anyone for prime minister. At his evening press conference he said he did not manage to persuade enough of the public, and that the responsibility is his. He called on leaders across the spectrum to form a Zionist, cross-bloc unity government and said "don't bring us back to October 6." He warned that without change the country could face repeat elections or worse. He said he would make the same choice again about joining the emergency government in October 2023, and that giving up his run is not giving up his path. He said he decided "out of responsibility" to remove his candidacy. Kan reports that his circle says he will not endorse any candidate and plans to work toward a unity government after the election, and does not rule out future public roles. None of the reports we found says he endorsed a party or a candidate, and none reports questions from journalists.

The second-round bet. Israel Hayom reports that Gantz's circle estimates another round of elections is likely. If coalition talks fail, he could wait on the sidelines and run again. Gantz has not said this publicly. It is commentary and his circle's estimate. The same report links his name to the presidency in 2028, which is also speculation.

Why now. Blue and White polled under the 3.25% threshold for months. Kan's 18 October poll had it at 1.1%. The party says its own polling had risen from about 0.5% to about 2%, still well short. A source close to Gantz tied the timing to soldiers' voting, which opens on Tuesday 20 October. He did not want those votes wasted. In September he told the Times of Israel he would stop if the last week of polls showed him out. He also said on 10 October that he would run "until the end." Party sources call the move a "brave leadership decision."

The slip. Kipa reports, citing unnamed sources, that for the Blue and White slip (כן) to stay out of the polling stations, all 39 candidates on the list must each submit a personal resignation by Wednesday 21 October. That is when the Central Elections Committee starts distributing voting materials to the polling stations. If even one does not resign in time, the slip is printed and distributed as normal and appears in the booth. The article cites no law and no official. We have not been able to confirm the rule or the deadline, so treat it as reported, not settled.

What is not settled. Ynet says he removed his own candidacy. Our sources do not say whether the 39 will resign, or whether any other candidate will run elsewhere. One Hebrew analysis notes that Gantz said he will not run, and did not say the list is withdrawn. Under election law a candidate can still resign from a list at this stage, according to that column. Check the Central Elections Committee for the official position.

How each camp reacted

The change bloc welcomed it.

• Gadi Eisenkot (Yashar) called it "correct and responsible."
• Yair Lapid (Together) congratulated Gantz.
• Yair Golan (Democrats) called it responsible and said the shared task now is to win for the change bloc.

The right is mixed.

• Religious Zionism said Gantz acted so as not to burn votes for the left bloc. It blamed Ofer Winter and what it called splinter parties for risking a left government.
• Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar urged right-wing lists at or near the threshold to withdraw. He said wasted right-wing votes "could be fatal" and pointed to 1992, when he says small right-wing parties missing the threshold helped the left win a majority. That is his account of the history.
• Ofer Winter (Amcha Yisrael) thanked Gantz, said the move shows his party matters, and said he will sit only in a Netanyahu government.
• Likud said Gantz was never offered a reserved ministerial slot.
• United Torah Judaism's Yaakov Asher praised Gantz personally.

The middle. Yoaz Hendel (Reservists and Economic Party) congratulated Gantz and urged "third bloc" voters to join his list, saying a Zionist government goes through his party. Winter made a similar pitch. These are party claims, not polling.

So the left is relieved. The right is split between lists that want Gantz's voters and coalition figures who want small right-wing lists to quit.

Where his voters may go

Nobody knows yet. There is no poll of Gantz's former voters.

• Analysis, not data. A Srugim column argues that Hendel and Zelekha are the biggest winners, because Gantz's voters include right-leaning people unhappy with Likud. The author guesses about 60% could go to them and says it is his own estimate, not a poll. The same column says Eisenkot is safe in bloc terms but may face a stronger Hendel to negotiate with after the vote.
• Who benefits in seats. Gantz's vote share was small, about 1% to 2%. In a 120-seat Knesset that is roughly one to two and a half seats' worth, and only if every vote had gone to one place. The two blocs are within a seat or two in Kan's poll (Eisenkot bloc 52, Netanyahu bloc 51). Small shifts matter.
• Wasted votes. If Gantz voters go to a list that also misses the threshold, their votes are lost again. Both camps have lists near the line. Hendel's list has polled around 4 seats. Winter's polled 3.1% in Kan on 18 October, under the line.

What happens to ballots already cast

Voting at Israeli missions abroad ended on 16 October. Of 4,863 eligible voters, 4,218 cast ballots (86.7%), at 101 stations in 99 missions. The voters are staff posted abroad. Israel Hayom's New York example lists consulate and UN mission staff, a Defense Ministry delegation and Jewish Agency emissaries. The sealed envelopes are flown to Israel and counted with the others.

Israel Hayom reports that votes already cast for Gantz's list "will not be counted in the seat distribution." Its report does not explain the legal basis, and we found no official statement from the Central Elections Committee. If the slip is removed because the whole list resigns, those ballots from abroad would be for a list that is no longer running. That is how we read the report, and it is not an official ruling. None of our sources says how many of the 4,218 ballots were for Blue and White.

Three practical points:

• The number is small. Blue and White was polling at 1% to 2% overall. Even if diplomats voted like the polls, that would be a few dozen ballots. This is arithmetic, not a count.
• They would not have won a seat anyway. A list under 3.25% gets nothing. The votes only matter if they shift a threshold or a close seat.
• Early voters cannot change their vote. Anyone who already voted abroad cannot take the ballot back. Soldiers voting from Tuesday, and everyone voting on 27 October, can choose again.

What to watch

• Whether all 39 candidates resign by Wednesday, and whether the Central Elections Committee issues a ruling on the list and on the early ballots.
• Where Gantz points his supporters. No report says he has endorsed anyone.
• The last polls before the blackout, which begins at the end of Friday 23 October. They are the first with Blue and White gone.
• Whether Winter, Hendel or other small lists cross 3.25%.

Sources: Walla, Gantz withdraws and the reactions; Walla, behind the decision; Kan; Israel Hayom, the ballots already cast; Israel Hayom, pressure on the right; Zman Yisrael; Srugim analysis; Kipa, the resignation deadline; Israel Hayom, the second-round estimate; Kan, behind the decision; Ynet, the press conference; i24NEWS, his statement; Times of Israel; Ynetnews; Israel National News, turnout abroad