Surplus-Vote Agreements: How Parties Share Leftover Votes

What a surplus-vote agreement is

A surplus-vote agreement (hesder odafim) is a deal between two parties to pool their leftover votes. It does not merge them. They keep separate lists, separate slates and separate threshold tests. The deal only matters at one step of the seat count: the handout of the last few seats.

Why leftover votes exist. Israel uses the Bader-Ofer method. It runs in two steps. First, the total of qualifying votes is divided by 120 to set a price per seat. Each list gets as many whole seats as it can afford. That leaves a few seats unfilled. Second, those leftover seats go one at a time to the list with the highest average, which is its votes divided by its seats plus one. Every list has some votes left over after buying whole seats. Those leftovers are the surplus.

What the pact does. For the second step only, the two partners count as one list. Their combined votes are divided by their combined seats plus one. If the pair wins a leftover seat, a private calculation splits it between them. No votes move. No seats are guaranteed. The pact simply gives the pair a better shot at an extra seat that neither would have won alone.

Who benefits. The method slightly favors big lists, so the gain tends to go to the larger partner. In practice the pacts are usually between a big party and a small ally on the same side.

The one condition. Both partners must clear the 3.25% threshold. If either misses, the pact is void and the other is treated as if it never signed. A pact cannot rescue a party that falls short. In 2022, Labor and Meretz had signed a pact. Meretz won 150,793 votes, 3.16%, and missed the threshold. The deal was void.

How the math works

The numbers below are invented to show the mechanism. They are not predictions.

Seven lists pass the threshold with 3,960,000 qualifying votes. The seat price is 3,960,000 divided by 120, or 33,000 votes.

Whole seats add up to 117. Three seats are left.

With no pacts. Each list's score is votes divided by seats plus one.

E, A and B win the three seats.

With F and G paired. The pair counts as one list. Their combined votes are 700,000, and they hold 20 seats, so the score is 700,000 divided by 21, or 33,333. That is the highest score on the board. The pair takes the first leftover seat. E and A take the next two. B loses a seat it would have won. Inside the pair, F has the higher score, so F gets the seat.

The takeaway. Neither F nor G would have won a seat alone. Together they took one from B. The pact moved a single seat. That is typically all a pact does.

Real cases.

• 2015. Kulanu and Yisrael Beytenu were paired. They won one leftover seat and Kulanu took it, giving Kulanu 10 seats and Yisrael Beytenu 6. Yisrael Beytenu was slightly closer to its own next seat, but the seat went to Kulanu by a margin of 0.0024 of a seat.
• 2020. Likud-Yamina: the extra seat went to Likud. Blue and White-Labor-Gesher-Meretz: it went to Blue and White.
• 2021. The pacts' extra seats went to Meretz, New Hope, Yisrael Beytenu, Likud and Shas. The Joint List had no pact and won another seat.
• 2022. The Labor-Meretz pact was void after Meretz fell short.

Who is paired in 2026

The deadline to sign is 16 Oct 2026, 11 days before the vote. That date comes from counting back from 27 Oct and from Times of Israel reporting. Signing is still open, so this list can change.

Likud and Religious Zionism. Likud polls about 21 and Religious Zionism about 6, per the Times of Israel. Religious Zionism is the partner most at risk of falling below the threshold in some polls. If it does, the pact is void. One Ynet report says the deal also covers Zehut. Wikipedia describes Zehut as already inside the list as a technical bloc.

Who is left without a partner.

• Otzma Yehudit. Otzma says Likud refused to sign with it. It calls this an effort to shrink Otzma and keep Ben-Gvir out of a Likud and Eisenkot unity government. A Likud official, per Ynet, says Netanyahu does not trust Ben-Gvir to stay with him alone. Ben-Gvir's only apparent partner is Ofer Winter's Amcha Yisrael, and Ynet reported he did not want that pact. Winter polls near or below the threshold, so such a pact might be void. Ynet also reports Likud is running a paid campaign to keep Winter below the line.
• Shas and UTJ. The Jerusalem Post said on 10 Sept they were "expected" to sign. I found no report that they did. They signed in 2019, 2021 and 2022.
• Reservists-Economic. Hendel offered Winter a pact. No reply.
• Blue and White. No pact found.

What the pairings tell you. The opposition has built two pairings that mirror each other. Center-right with center-right (Together and Yisrael Beytenu) and center with left (Yashar and the Democrats). The Arab parties paired with each other. On the other side, Likud paired with its right-wing ally and left its harder-right ally out.

What to watch

• Pact versus merger. A merger is one list with one slate and one threshold test. A pact keeps two lists. Each must clear 3.25%. Times of Israel's Sterman argues the leftover arithmetic is otherwise similar to a joint list.
• The size of the prize. Each pact can win at most a leftover seat or two. IDI's 2021 numbers show only a handful of leftover seats in the whole Knesset. I found no estimate of what the 2026 pacts are worth. Do not read them as bloc-level swings.
• The risk is the threshold. The Likud pact depends on Religious Zionism staying above 3.25%. The Yashar pact depends on the Democrats. A weak partner turns the pact into nothing.
• 16 Oct. Last day to sign. Watch for a Shas and UTJ filing, an Otzma deal, and any new deal for Blue and White or the Reservists-Economic slate.
• Wasted votes still matter more. A pact saves a seat. A list that misses the threshold wastes thousands of votes. About 289,000 anti-Netanyahu votes were wasted in 2022, mainly through Meretz and Balad, according to Wikipedia.

How firm is the rule that only two lists can pair? The Israel Democracy Institute says two in one article and "two or more" in another. I would not print it as a hard rule.

Sources: Israel Democracy Institute, how surplus votes work; Israel Democracy Institute, 2022 aftermath; Times of Israel blog, what vote-sharing agreements actually do; Times of Israel, Likud and Religious Zionism sign; Jerusalem Post, 10 Sept pacts; Jerusalem Post, Joint List and Ra'am; Jerusalem Post, Likud and Religious Zionism; Ynetnews; Wikipedia, 2026 election; Wikipedia, 2022 election.